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Wednesday, July 06, 2005

Entering a dark age of innovation

johnny_5"SURFING the web and making free internet phone calls on your Wi-Fi laptop, listening to your iPod on the way home, it often seems that, technologically speaking, we are enjoying a golden age. Human inventiveness is so finely honed, and the globalised technology industries so productive, that there appears to be an invention to cater for every modern whim.

But according to a new analysis, this view couldn't be more wrong: far from being in technological nirvana, we are fast approaching a new dark age. That, at least, is the conclusion of Jonathan Huebner, a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center in China Lake, California. He says the rate of technological innovation reached a peak a century ago and has been declining ever since. And like the lookout on the Titanic who spotted the fateful iceberg, Huebner sees the end of innovation looming dead ahead. His study will be published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change." (more at link)

Bah. Forget that mess, here's some stuff about super-intelligent computers:

Vernor Vinge on the SingularityThe 1993 NASA lecture by Vernor Vinge, inventor of the Singularity concept. "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman ...


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